SS futures pulled back, downstream stainless steel wait-and-see sentiment intensified [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

Published: Sep 3, 2025 18:17

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[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review: SS Futures Pull Back, Downstream Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies] SMM, September 3 - SS futures fluctuated in the doldrums. Despite a stronger night session, the daytime session opened with downward fluctuations influenced by the overall pullback in the ferrous metals series and a sharp decline in SHFE nickel, breaching the 12,900 yuan/mt level again. In the spot market, downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced cargoes was already limited, and the weaker SS futures further exacerbated their wait-and-see sentiment. Although traders offered concessions, intraday transactions remained less than ideal. Recently, frequent news of maintenance and production cuts at stainless steel mills, coupled with sustained increases in nickel and chromium raw material prices, has fueled widespread market expectations for price hikes. Futures side, the most-traded contract 2510 fluctuated. At 10:30, SS2510 traded at 12,915 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B ranged between 355-655 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi's cold-rolled 201/2B coils averaged 8,100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils averaged 13,250 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan traded at 25,825 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in both regions averaged 25,300 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan both traded at 7,550 yuan/mt. Building on last week's rebound in SS futures, the early part of this week benefited from dual macro and news-driven tailwinds, successfully breaking through...

SMM September 3 report: SS futures remained in the doldrums. Despite a stronger night session, the daytime session opened with downward fluctuations influenced by the overall pullback in ferrous metals series and a sharp decline in SHFE nickel, breaching the 12,900 yuan/mt level again. Spot market-wise, end-users' limited acceptance of high-priced materials was further exacerbated by the weaker futures, intensifying wait-and-see sentiment. Although traders offered concessions, intraday transactions remained sluggish. Recently, frequent reports of stainless steel mill maintenance and production cuts, coupled with rising nickel and chrome raw material prices, fueled widespread bullish expectations.

Futures-wise, the most-traded October 2025 contract fluctuated. At 10:30 am, SS2510 traded at 12,915 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous session. Wuxi’s 304/2B spot premiums/discounts ranged between 355-655 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi’s 201/2B cold-rolled coils averaged 8,100 yuan/mt; 304/2B cold-rolled edges averaged 13,250 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; 316L/2B cold-rolled coils were priced at 25,825 yuan/mt in both regions; 316L/NO.1 hot-rolled coils traded at 25,300 yuan/mt in both locations; 430/2B cold-rolled coils were uniformly priced at 7,550 yuan/mt in Wuxi and Foshan.

Following last week’s rebound in SS futures, early this week saw further upward momentum driven by macro and news-driven tailwinds, successfully breaking through last week’s resistance. This provided some support to market confidence.Despite persistently low spot market acceptance of high-priced materials, proactive trader discounts and sales promotions slightly improved overall inquiries and transactions. Notably, stainless steel social inventory declined for eight consecutive weeks, with current levels pulling back to early-year figures, effectively alleviating mills’ sales pressure. Additionally, recent price increases in key raw materials like nickel, chrome, and molybdenum further elevated stainless steel’s cost center. Meanwhile, rising expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and China’s anti-"rat race" policy bolstered overall market optimism. However, downstream end-user demand remains incomplete, with September steel production expected to increase further alongside ongoing futures volatility, keeping risks of market fluctuations. Close monitoring of macro policy implementation and actual demand recovery is warranted.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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